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A possible future of operating systems

June 9, 2005 12:25 AM

My guess is that eventually users will choose Microsoft's or Apple's operating system just like we choose Coke or Pepsi in any restaurant today.

Restaurants today offer Coke or Pepsi, but never both. Deals and/or discounts insure that. The same thing will happen with operating systems.

When you buy a Gateway, it might come with Windows.

When you buy a Dell, it might come with OSX.

It's that simple, and it's something you don't really even give much thought to anymore.

And if you're in a bind, the "other" OS will be offered as "add-on" - installed to run in a virtual machine, but you won't care, because thanks to abstraction layer frameworks, most programs will be available for both systems, and will look and act nearly the same in both.

Comments

So what you're saying is that hardware has been totally marginalized (who cares what chip is in the box) and the only thing that matters is the OS. Innovation (added value) is occurring at the higher levels of the stack and thats where companies are focusing their efforts (at least for the consumer market).

AMD vs. Intel, 2.8GHZ vs 2.6GHZ vs. 3.0GHZ. To 64-bit or not to 64-bit? And whats with the 6.02x10^23 different flavors of memory out there?

Hardware is way too complicated, but the reality is: it doesn't matter. I can sit you down in front of a 3ghz machine and switch it out with a 2.8 or a 4.0 and you probably wouldn't know the difference.

The OS governs your user experience: the UI, which apps you run, etc. As microsoft figured out a long time ago, the OS is what matters, not the chips (as much as intel might like to think otherwise).

Gee - that's deep - lol

Sounds like exactly what we have today. There is VirtualPC for the Mac, Microsoft is already using the PowerPC for the XBox 360 (http://www.xbox.com/en-US/xbox360/factsheet.htm), and Apple is moving to an intel processor for their desktops (http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2005/jun/06intel.html).

Not very forward-looking if you ask me. More like stating the obvious.

PS.) did you mean "ensure"?

This is definitely the wave of the future. The virtualization technologies being pushed by AMD and Intel (Pacifica and VT, respectively; see http://www.itjungle.com/tlb/tlb053105-story03.html) will seal the deal, making OS choice irrelevant from a functional perspective.

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